FIFA WORLD CUP FOOTBALL’18

We are about to witness another edition of the second greatest sporting extravaganza on this planet after Olympics – FIFA World Cup Finals of Football. The host is Russia and all the 11 host cities are ready to welcome the teams when the first whistle blows on 14^th of June. In the next one month, we would witness 64 electrifying soccer matches to determine the best team in the world.

Of the last 20^th Edition, only 8 teams have won the FIFA finals till date – 5 from Europe and 3 from South America. The list of Winners and Runners up are given in Annexure – I. Brazil has won the World Cups 5 times while Germany and Italy has won it 4 times each. Argentina and Uruguay could win this a couple of times while European countries Spain, France and England has won it only once.. Among the notable teams, Netherlands should also be remembered as they are the only teams who have reached the finals thrice and never won it.

Out of these 8 winners, Italy could not qualify in this world cup and Netherlands are also missing from the fray. England and Uruguay are not the force that they used to be. So, it leaves us with only 5 strong contenders for the Cup this time from past winners. Among other teams, Belgium, Portugal, Peru and Columbia are good teams. Further, this Cup is being seen as the last world Cup of two stalwarts – Cristiano Ronaldo & Lionel Messi. Since, this coveted trophy is missing from their cabinets, they will be itching to get a hand on it. However, if we go by expert’s opinion – they are viewing only 6 teams capable of winning this Cup – Five past winners viz. Brazil, Argentina, Spain, France, Germany and Belgium. Like hockey, Belgium has improved by leaps and Bounds and is a strong contender to be crowned for the first time.

5 teams have qualified from both Asian and African continents, 3 teams have qualified from North America while their Southern counterparts are sending 5 teams in the competition. 14 Nations are coming from Europe and thus making it 32 nations’ contest. These nations have been clubbed in 8 groups of four teams and top two teams from each group will make it to the first round of knock-out stage i.e. pre-quarterfinals.

Group A is the weakest group with host Russia (65) pitted against nations like Egypt (30), Uruguay(17) and Saudi Arabia (63). Though, Uruguay is two times world champion and boasts of player like Suarez and Egypt is ranked 30^th in the World but this is the best group hosts could have bargained for if they wanted to qualify for the next stage. I feel Uruguay and Russia will qualify for the next stage.

Group B is the tougher group with Spain (8) and European Champion Portugal (3) alongwith Iran(34) and Morocco(48) in it. This is one of the relatively tougher group of the championship but I don’t think Portugal and Spain will have any problem in reaching pre-quarterfinals. It is only a matter of positioning for these two teams.

Group C consists of France(7), Australia(43), Peru(10) and Denmark(19), which seems to be the toughest group.  France and Peru seems to be strong contender to reach knock out stage but Denmark can be the surprise package spoiling the campaign for other two.

World No. four, Argentina (4) will be facing minnows Iceland(21), Croatia(18) and Nigeria(43) in Group D. They could not have bargained for easier group than this and Messi can get good match practice during group stage before the real championship starts for them. Among other teams, Iceland and Croatia both have equally good chance but if tiny nation Iceland shows the form it displayed during European cup in 2016, it will easily qualify for the second round.

Eternal favourites Brazil (2) is up against Switzerland (11), Costa Rica ( 22) and Serbia (38) in Group E and going by the form of the sides, Brazil and Switzerland would be reaching the last 16 without much fuss.

Group F has the best team of the World Cup, no. 1 Germany (1) alongwith Mexico(16), Sweeden(25) and South Korea(62). Germany will reach the pre-QF easily – it is only the second place fight between Mexico and Sweeden.

One of the competitive group in the fray is Group G – Belgium (5), England (12), Tunisia (28) and Panama (49). However, the top two ranked team Belgium and England should have it easy.

Last group boasts of the team like Poland (6), Senegal (32), Columbia(13) and Japan (44). I feel Poland and Columbia can reach the second stage without any surprises in store for them.

Since, teams like Italy and Netherlands are missing from this Cup which has resulted in less competitiveness at the group stage and it has also devoid us from customary “group of Death”. The qualifiers for the next stage can be predicted very easily unless some major upset takes place which is highly unlikely.

Though predicting anything in a Championship like FIFA World Cup football is a very risky affair, still I am presenting my prediction as follows in the table i.e. Spain will be the Champions lifting the Cup for the 2^nd time on 15^th of July.

Hope to see my predictions coming true in the World Cup but above all, I hope that this WC brings the everlasting joy and excitement to us and may the best team win the Cup!!!!

 

 

Annexure – I

S.No.	Year	Host	Winner	Runners Up	Final Score	Remarks
1	1930	Uruguay	Uruguay	Argentina	4-2
2	1934	Italy	Italy	Czechoslovakia	2-1	Decided in Extra Time. Score was 1-1 after 90 Min
3	1938	France	Italy	Hungary	4-2	It wasn’t Finals but decisive match that decided the winner
4	1950	Brazil	Uruguay	Brazil	2-1
5	1954	Switzerland	West Germany	Hungary	3-2
6	1958	Sweeden	Brazil	Sweeden	5-2
7	1962	Chile	Brazil	Czechoslovakia	3-1
8	1966	England	England	West Germany	4-2	Decided in Extra Time. Score was 2-2 after 90 Min
9	1970	Mexico	Brazil	Italy	4-1
10	1974	West Germany	West Germany	Netherlands	2-1
11	1978	Argentina	Argentina	Netherlands	3-1	Decided in Extra Time. Score was 1-1 after 90 Min
12	1982	Spain	Italy	West Germany	3-1
13	1986	Mexico	Argentina	West Germany	3-2
14	1990	Italy	West Germany	Argentina	1-0
15	1994	USA	Brazil	Italy	3-2	Decided through Penalties. Score was 0-0 after 120 Min
16	1998	France	France	Brazil	3-0
17	2002	Japan-S.Korea	Brazil	Germany	2-0
18	2006	Germany	Italy	France	5-3	Decided through Penalties. Score was 1-1 after 120 Min
19	2010	S. Africa	Spain	Netherlands	1-0	Decided in Extra Time. Score was 0-0 after 90 Min
20	2014	Brazil	Germany	Argentina	1-0	Decided in Extra Time. Score was 0-0 after 90 Min

 

 

CHANGINF FACE OF ER(Employee Relations)

Let me throw some light at the context of the article before you read the Article. This was written in 2009, when GM(HR) of HUL, Mr. Nagarajan visited our B-school and briefed us about the current scenario of IR (Industrial Relations) in India. The summary of his views was, like any other management, that conditions of Employee have changed for better and hence lesser number of labour unrest. I tried to prove otherwise with the help of some publicly available data.

GM(HR) of HUL threw some light on interesting changes that is taking place in the field of ER due to the changing face of business – the primary changes being the formation of International TU, reduction in the no. of strikes, increase in the aspiration level of employees due to rising wages and rise in union membership despite globalization. Many experts feared that due to globalization, the labour laws of the country will be eased to accommodate the demands of MNCs and hence the membership of union will be reduced on account of lay-off but actually the no. of members in Union has gone up. He also told about some specific incidents of anti-poaching arguments with competitors to keep the workman with the company and how the man days lost due to strike is much lesser than those lost due to lock-outs.

In short, he painted a very rosy picture and tried to convince the audience that the graph of employees’ conditions is showing improvement. All the facts which he presented cannot be denied but I beg to digress on few issues. Since his speech concentrated mainly on Indian ER, hence I would confine myself to Indian scenario.

One major factor that is leading to change in IR is globalization and India is also affected by it considerably. Post 1991, Indian economy has grown faster than its infamous Hindu rate of growth (at an average of 5%-7%) which has resulted in creation of capital but job opportunities has not grown proportionately (growth of employment-2.49%)[1]. Moreover, the workers in organized sector are merely 7% of the total available 401 mn workforce[2] (Majority of TUs are in organized sector). This percentage is stagnant for few years now and this leads to a very interesting conclusion- it is true that membership of TU has increased, as claimed by Mr. Nagrajan, but this is because there is net increase in the number of workers and not because TUs has become stronger or is able to attract more members.

One important change that is taking place due to globalization is the changing relationship of political parties and TUs. Earlier, TUs affiliation with the large national parties was a source of power for them but now honeymoon is over and parties are not as supportive as they used to be. This is because they are adopting pro-employer attitude so that more and more money is invested by private players. The Honda case’2005 is an illustration of this changing attitude. As a result of this, the position of TUs is weakening and they are adopting co-operative approach instead of previously adopted adversarial approach. This is evident in the fact that number of strikes are decreasing[3]. Thus, it can be safely said that number of man days lost in strike is decreasing as compared to the same in lockout not because of improving conditions of workmen but because of reducing strength of TUs i.e. union militancy is being replaced by employer militancy. Due to the weakening of TUs, most of the bargaining is taking place at enterprise level i.e. decentralized bargaining is becoming prevalent. Though, there are some effort of making international TUs (which will essentially bring centralized bargaining), as mentioned by Mr. Nagrajan, but till now it has not been very successful in India (in Europe, it is quite successful esp. in Western Europe).

Now, unions have also started realizing the necessity of increasing productivity and they are increasingly bargaining on the issues such as severance pay, implementation of new technologies, training etc. When Tata Motors laid-off in 2003, it did not create any furore which signifies the changing ideology of TUs. Numerical flexibility has become the norm of the day in India. Though, in some countries functional flexibility has been adopted but it has not garnered much pace in India.

TUs are also coming to the terms of wage flexibility. This is due to the fact that the demographics of work-force are changing. More and more contingent workers are being inducted in the employment and to maintain the parity between permanent and temporary workers, TUs has to bargain over the issue of variable pay.

 

 

Some of the recent trends that are being seen in the world IR, which can help Indian TUs, are as follows:-

1. International TU
2. Cyber Union
3. Coalition with NGOs

Since, this is an era of globalized world, so TUs also need to be globalized and hence international TU can play a very effective role. These types of TUs are being formed in the member countries of EU. Additionally, the power of internet can be used to collectivize those workers who need not come to a place daily or who are contingent workers. USA is witnessing the formation of these types of unions. In Brazil and South Africa, it is seen that TUs are taking up social causes combining with the local NGOs. This is significant since TUs are considered to be concerned with the work related problem but now they are changing the role (structural contradictions perspective) and trying to adopt an ideology which is concerned with the society as a whole.

In short, it can be said that the globalization has created a situation where ER is changing in the favor of the employers more as there is a new coalition of government and business(Judiciary is also favoring employers). Hence, the situation might have improved for a few skilled workers who are being hunted by the companies, but as a whole the situation is not very impressive since between the power struggle of employers and Unions, it is the former which is gaining the upper hand. That might prove to be beneficial in short-run but in the long-run only the balance of power can create a situation when either party restrains from taking unnecessary steps. Thus, TUs have to reinvigorate them to remain relevant and powerful.

 

 

 

REFERENCES

Articles:

• Globalization and Industrial Relations of China, India and South Korea: an argument for divergence, Mohammad A. Ali, University of Rhode Island,2005
• Introduction: Collective Actors in Industrial Relations: What Future, Thomas A. Kochan, 2004
• Global Labour’s Uncertain Future, George S.Roukis, Hofstra University, Collective Negotiations, Vol. 30(4), 2005
• The Politics of Labour Reforms in India, C.S. Venkata Ratnam, Global Business Review, 2002
• India’s Growh: Past performance and future prospects,  Shankar Acharya ,2007
• Organized labour and economic liberalization. India: Past, present and future, Debashish Bhattacherjee,IIM-C,Labour and Society Programme,1999
• Employment Scenario: A report by ministry of labour ‘2005.

 

 

 

Books:

• Negotiated change:  Collective bargaining, liberalization and restructuring in India, Venkata Ratnam, 2003

 

ANNEXURE- 1

 

 

This is for a period of 1998-2005.

 

ANNEXURE-2

 

The number of work force in 2000 = 401 mn*

Increase in the percentage of work-force =1.1% *

*(taken from economic census of ministry of labour).

Hence, the work force chart

	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
No. of workers	401	405.4	409.8	414.3	418.9	423.5	428.2	432.9	437.6
No. of employees in organised sector (7%)	28.07	28.38	28.69	29.01	29.33	29.65	29.97	30.30	30.64
TU membership*	25.26	25.54	25.82	26.11	26.39	26.68	26.98	27.27	27.57

*Assuming that 90% of organized workforce is the member of TU

Thus, TU membership has definitely increased but because of the rising working population and not because of strengthening of TU movement.

 

ANNEXURE-3

 

 

This is number of strikes and lock-outs over the years. While the number of strikes has fallen rapidly over the years, the number of lock-outs is almost stagnant.

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[1] Annexure 1

[2] Annexure 2

[3] Annexure 3
The above article was written by me when I was a student of XLRI (in 2009) and it was published in the IR magazine of XL, Dhyuti.